Bang! Bang! Ballerina! Projecting the success of From the World of John Wick: Ballerina

We’re excited to check back into the Continental for the release of From the World of John Wick: Ballerina this weekend! Using Diesel’s predictive modeling, the new installment is likely to clock in at a deadly $21 to $48 million in opening weekend domestic box office.

We built 4 models based on behavioral metrics: movie info page views (proxy for search activity), comments, video views and a combo of the 3. The opening weekend domestic box office results for John Wick 1 – 4 were 14M (2014), 30M (2017), 57M (2019) and 74M (2023).

In addition we took a look at discourse around the film, and some key themes that emerged around the assassin spinoff. Men discussed the action adventure genre and physical realism of the film while women leaned toward empowerment and representation.

Analysis of trailer discourse focused heavily on excitement for new and returning characters, with appreciation for the elaborate fight sequences on par with prior John Wick films. Criticism was modest but centered around originality and excessive narrative detail revealed in the trailer.

Will executives be dancing at the end of Ballerina’s opening weekend? Or will the John Wick spinoff get a Dear John? Whatever the case may be, keep your sights on Diesel Labs to find out.